New Zealanders have been told to look out for El Niño in the coming months, with the weather pattern expected to become strongest over summer. Earth Sciences New Zealand says there is a 95 per cent chance of El Niño conditions between June and August 2026. El Niño is a natural climate driver that begins in the Pacific Ocean and can affect weather around the world. For New Zealand, it is likely to bring drier, hotter and windier conditions to many areas.
El Niño happens when ocean water near South America becomes warmer than usual. At the same time, trade winds near the Equator can weaken or even change direction. This moves warm and cool ocean water around the Pacific, which can change where rain and storms form. In New Zealand, El Niño can lead to stronger westerly winds in summer and more southerly winds in winter.